The US just completed a two week long war game called Internal Look which simulated an Israeli attack on Iran. It would have been quite humorous if it were not for the potential tragedies involved. Several outright lies were told. Only 200 US sailors would die from Iranian missiles. The Iranians will attack just one ship in the Persian Gulf. American war planners assumed Iran will not respond to an attack from Israel by attacking other US forces in the Persian Gulf and Central Command. In an earlier version of this war game 6 US divisions were sent into Iran.I have heard of current plans to send US Marines into Iran to protect the oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. I wonder how they will do that when the Persian Gulf fleet and all US bases in Central Command cease to exist. Ditto for Israel’s Muslim allies in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.
The Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said an attack on Iran would not lead to a regional war, that it would not lead to higher oil prices and fewer than 1,000 Israelis would die from incoming missiles sent by Iran, Syria and Hezbollah. It has been estimated that 150,000 missiles would be fired at Israel. Debka which has ties to the Mossad says 200,000 missiles though that might be an attempt to convince the Israelis that World War III is a Really Bad Idea. Hezbollah has the oldest and shortest range missiles but even they have sufficient numbers of M-600 missiles with Russian made guidance systems to turn Tel Aviv into a parking lot. A few thousand guided missiles with fuel air explosive warheads will devastate Israel. 42% of all Jews in Israel live in the 528 square miles (1.338 Square Kilometers) of metropolitan Tel Aviv. A fuel air explosive is 3 to 4 times as powerful as a conventional bomb. Bombs and fires both require oxygen. Fuel air explosives gather oxygen from the air within a half mile radius so it does not have to waste space in the warhead with oxygenates.
Israel’s losses would be so great that she would have to use nuclear weapons to stop the incoming missiles. That means nuclear strikes against Iran, Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon as well as Pakistan. Pakistan would retaliate by nuking India and Israel while sending a million men across the border to kill Americans.
I will state flatly that if Ehud Barak, Bibi Netanyahu and Avigdor Lieberman did survive the war, angry Israeli mobs will hunt them down with revenge in mind. Only 20% of Israelis support an attack on Iran.
Internal Look assumed only 200 sailors died in the initial attack on Iran. This attack was limited to one ship but gave the US the right to bomb Iran’s nuclear project which the Israelis had nit sufficiently damaged in one air strike. Gibberish and Lies. Iran has 130 mile (210 km) range rocket artillery with 1,323 pound (600 kg) warheads. They also have very fast Russian made anti-ship missiles for which the US Navy has not yet developed a defense. The Iranians also have drones which have 4 missiles each that could be used to disable radar, control rooms and guided missiles so the Persian Gulf fleet will be defenseless as waves of incoming missiles and rocket artillery sink every ship within minutes. Sounds to me like a lot more than 200 sailors dying. The only true statement in the New York Times report is that there would be dire consequences for US Central Command.
There is a passing reference to military action against US troops in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere in Central Command. What if the Iraqi and Afghan army shelled American air bases and making them inoperable? What if Russia joined Pakistan and cut off supplies to our troops in Afghanistan? The US already pats $400 a gallon for gasoline. What if Pakistani soldiers went over the border and captured American soldiers in Afghanistan? What if Iranian soldiers armed with anti-aircraft missiles went into Iraq and Afghanistan to kill and capture American troops?
Some might remember a previous war game Millennium Challenge 2002 which was so badly rigged that the Red team leader Marine Corps Lt. General Paul K Van Riper who played the role of the Iranian commander had to resign to maintain his integrity. After Red team (Iran) had sunk the American fleet, the decision was made to “re-floated” the ships that had been sunk. The Red Team was forced to take orders from the Pentagon. They were not allowed to shoot down planes carrying US soldiers. They were ordered to turn on all their anti-aircraft radar in order for them to be destroyed. The Red team was restricted and not allowed to use all of their weapons. They were also required to reveal the locations of their troops so they could be attacked. Since 2002 the Iranians have added substantial fire power and manpower to their forces.
Personally, I believe that the most likely source of war will not be a direct attack by Israel on Iran. The greatest risk is an accidental war. Prior to the Iraq invasion American soldiers who took anti-depressants and anti-psychotic medications were not allowed into combat. Now 20% of all troops are given a 180 day supply of prescription drugs which can be popped in doses greater than intended or traded for other prescription or non-prescription drugs. These men are working long hours under extremely stressful conditions on multiple tours. There is a strong risk of an accidental firing of missiles that could escalate into a very hot war.
Even more likely than an accidental war is that the US economy spirals out of control so America is incapable of fighting any foreign war other than a nuclear exchange.. All of this talk of war with Syria and Iran was originally designed to take our attention away from the ongoing theft of tens of trillions of dollars until there is nothing left to be taken. But all of this war talk is driving up the price of oil raising gasoline and diesel prices. These prices are being passed along into the the cost of all delivered items and also into the price of plastics, chemicals, fertilizers and other products. Before the recent oil price rise the US inflation rate has been 11.6%. It is now above 12% and will be closer to 20% by election day in November. Ten year interest rates have inched up and will go higher. The dollar will cease to function s an international reserve currency in 2013 and forever end America’s ability to wage war.
But a lot can happen in 12 to 18 months.
Notes: To read more about what would happen to Israel in case of a war please consider this:
5 Minutes To Self-Immolation Of The Israeli Empire
This will explain what you need to know about America’s insane foreign wars.
There Never Was An American Empire Only A Machine That Consumed Us All Part II
This will give you my take on recent US economic history which will result in Hyperinflation in 2013.
From Greenspan To Bernanke To Perdition
This is my editorial on Obama and high oil prices.
Correction Please Mr Obama
This explains why you are the enemy and Iran is not.
War Clouds On The Potomac. No Not Iran. War Declared On You.
Below are source articles on the war games mentioned above.
U.S. War Game Sees Perils of Israeli Strike Against Iran