The US and NATO both of which are under the control of Israel and the New York and London banks have pushed Iran to the brink of mass starvation. The Iranians have no way of importing the food they need to feed their people. Iranians have already died from a lack of critical medicine because of the Israeli inspired sanctions which are an act of war. I should point out that Iran has no nuclear weapons program no matter what Israel says. There is no legitimate reason for the sanctions. They are designed to force Iran to act so the US public will accept a really big war.
The following game playing exercise is based on the threat the Iranian parliament made to close the Straits of Hormuz. Iran might be forced to make it become real. Iran might say we have no nuclear weapons project. Come and investigate it again. We have been forced by the sanctions you have placed on us, which are killing our people, to make the following statement Either you will end the sanctions in 72 hours or we will use our Navy to close the Straits of Hormuz to all oil traffic we do not approve. As a last resort, we will mine the Straits if the closure does not work.
The Iranians will emphasize that they have no choice. If the sanctions are not lifted, their people will die in even greater numbers. Thousands have already died. These sanctions are an act of war. They have no nuclear weapons program. If their peaceful nuclear reactor at Bushehr is bombed, a million Iranians will die but 30 million people in India, Pakistan, China, and elsewhere in Asia, North America and Europe will also die. Radiation is a cumulative poison. The radiation from Bushehr must be added to the that released from Fukushima and from unconscionable levels released by the US military’s use of Depleted Uranium.
The clock starts ticking at 10 AM London time (1:30 PM in Tehran) on a Monday when the Iranians make the announcement. The insurance companies respond by ordering all oil tankers to leave the Persian Gulf even if they are empty. The price of oil soars to $147 a barrel even before Washington has woken up and issues its first ultimatum. China which obviously knew what was coming sells US Treasury bonds and offers to buy oil from Venezuela, Nigeria and other non-Gulf oil exporters. Tehran is evacuated of civilians. Residents were told earlier that morning to go live with relatives in rural areas. Tens of thousands of trained suicide volunteers are armed and moved to secure locations near the Iraq and Afghanistan borders. New Yorkers discover that gasoline prices rose 50 cents a gallon by 10 AM their tine with analysts saying the price could go to ten or twelve dollars a gallon if the US does not invade Iran and hold the territory near the Straits.
The Israelis who had been campaigning for a war with Iran offer the following plan of attack if Iran cannot be persuaded to give up their plan to close the Straits. Israel cannot attack Iran. Iran is too far away. There would be no element of surprise. In fact Israel had to move its air bases out of range of Hezbollah’s M-600 missile which has a 450 Kg (992 pound) warhead and Russian guidance systems. Hezbollah has sufficient numbers of these missiles to destroy Tel Aviv.
The Israeli plan is that they will go on a 3 front offensive against Lebanon, Syria and Egypt to capture the Sinai, to destroy Hezbollah in Lebanon and seize the Litani river which has a water flow of 920 million cubic meters. The Israelis will ask for American missile and air support to take out Hezbollah and Syria. Left unsaid is that the Israelis also plan to force the Palestinians out of the West bank. Gaza, east Jerusalem and perhaps even Israel itself as it is thought the Muslims would go on a rampage if they saw so many of their people die.
The Israelis call up their reserves. El Al and western airlines take foreigners and Israeli civilians out of Israel. All El Al pilots who are in the Israeli Air Force return to Israel with plane loads of Israelis whose military units were called up. All airline traffic to Israel other than El Al is halted by insurance companies guidelines as of the Wednesday night before the 72 hour deadline. The Israeli economy grinds to a halt.
The Israelis threaten to attack at 2:30 AM their time (4:00 AM in Tehran) on the first morning after the Iranians close the Straits of Hormuz. If the Americans do not attack Iran at the same time, the Iranians will just have the advantage of a first strike at the US. The Israeli arrogance rubs the American politicians and military personnel the wrong way. The Americans know that Iran has no nuclear weapons program. The Israelis want to destroy Syria and Iran because they give weapons to Hezbollah which defeated Israel in 2006.
The Israeli battle plan is for their forces and the Americans to fire as many missiles as they can and to launch their air power in the first 60 seconds. They will need to take out Syrian air defenses which are formidable and can down both stealth aircraft and incoming missiles for a limited amount of time. They need to be overwhelmed as quickly as possible so the Israelis and the Americans can take out the Syrian Air Force. But more importantly they need to take out those 150,000 missiles aimed at Israel though a couple of Israeli sources put that current figure at 175,000. Many of those missiles will be redirected to the American Mediterranean fleet and the 20 US joint occupation bases in Turkey. Most of those missiles are primitive weapons good only to confuse Israeli anti-missile defenses. But there are so many of then that the Israeli air defense system and all Israelis in the border regions will be severely impacted. Hezbollah and Syria will fire thousands of more advanced guided missiles with 992 pound (450 Kgs) fuel air explosives. Iran will be firing IRBMs with 1,600 pound (725 Kgs) fuel air explosives.
Explosives and fires require oxygen. Conventional bombs are packed with oxygenates so it can explode on impact. A fuel air explosive has no oxygenates. It takes oxygen from the surrounding air as the name implies. It has a blast 3 times as large as a conventional bomb.
On the first day of the announcement by Iran the Russian naval commander in the Mediterranean tells the Americans in the area that there will be severe consequences for any attack on a Russian ship. The Russian President says the same to the American President as does the Chief of Staff of Russian forces to his American counterpart. The Iranians tell the American air base and aircraft carrier commanders that if they launch too many jets at one time Iran will attack with missiles to take out their bases and ships.
The Iranian plan of attack is based on the known assets they have. They will fire IRBMs with 1,600 pound fuel air explosive warheads at all 35 American bases in the area. They will also target the royal families and the military of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. SRBMs with mach 3 speed and 1,000 pound fuel air explosive warheads will be fired in clusters over a wide area and in waves to take down approaching aircraft before they reach the coast line of Iran. At the coast the incoming aircraft and cruise missiles will be met by Chinese HQ 9 anti-aircraft missiles with mach 4.2 speed plus a variety of other Russian and Chinese made missiles. The Iranian Air Force will then challenge the surviving planes which will have no bases to return to as all 35 bases in the area and the Persian Gulf and Mediterranean fleets will cease to exist by the time the attacking jets reach Iranian soil.
The Iranians will use their drones and their swarms of small fast boats armed with anti-ship and anti-aircraft weapons to launch their first wave of attacks which will be in the first ten seconds. The drones have 4 missiles each. The initial wave will be aimed at the radar, the control room, the guns, the missiles and the flight decks so the fleet is disarmed. Over the next 50 seconds every ship in the Persian Gulf fleet will be hit by as many as 50 anti-ship missiles with speeds up to mach 3. Then what remains will be hit by Iranian rocket artillery with 130 mile (210 Km) range and a 1,322 pound (600 Kg) warheads.
The Iranian psyops might want to copy from the American and Israeli programs. They could leak to Pakistani and American double agents that 100,000 Pakistani tribal members armed with automatic weapons will invade Afghanistan to kill NATO occupiers after their bases and more importantly their jets and helicopters cease to exist. Without supplies the NATO pilots will have to fly as far away as possible with the fuel they currently have in their tanks.
The Iranians could leak to the Iraqis and the Americans that they will split all ransom money with the Iraqi military for any Americans they capture after their bases cease to exist.
The Iranians can leak to the Americans and the Saudis that they will offer the Pakistani mercenaries a share in the redistribution of wealth after the royal families and the American bases cease to exist. The tell them the plan is to have the Pakistani mercenaries in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain give weapons to the poorly paid Pakistani construction workers. All Pakistani men have had mandatory military training. They will calculate that a share in the wealth of the royal families is doable after the royal the Persian Gulf fleet and the American bases cease to exist.
I would expect the stock markets to decline by the limit every day until the 72 hours are up.
I would also expect the US military and even the Israeli military to balk at the attack plan. The IDF could even arrest the Israeli Prime Minister if he tells them to attack Syria. The Syrians and Hezbollah have enough missiles to directly hit every Israeli military base and half of the homes and businesses of Israeli Jews.
I do not think that the US military will be willing to go into a first strike war against Iran, Syria and Lebanon. They know that is suicide.
The limit of what they would be willing to do is to attempt to protect civilian ships as the Iranians seize them. This will accelerate the rise in the price of oil and the decline of the dollar. As America goes into a rapid economic decline and the military refuses to go to war, the US banks will close and the people will riot. China will respond by dumping US Treasury bonds and bidding oil away from America. Interest rates and oil prices will spike. Hyperinflation will be unleashed. The world will reject American hegemony and demand an end to sanctions against Iran. I would expect this to happen within 30 to 60 days of a huge spike in oil prices.
America and Israel have reached the limits of their empires. We do not know what will happens over the next 90 to 180 days. But I guarantee the world will learn by this time next year that America and Israel no longer rule the lives of everyone on the planet.
Notes: Two of my most recent articles are here:
Memo To Pentagon: Compare The Invasion Of Liechtenstein And The Cayman Islands To War With Iran And Syria
So What Happens In 2013 When The Number Of Poor In America Goes From 100 To 280 Million?
The following has deep background research on the Bilderbergers.
Annotated Bilderberg 2012 Member List
911: Short And Powerful Questions