So What Happens When Russia Captures 40,000 NATO Soldiers?

The Ukraine is continuing to lose both soldiers and strategic positions in the Donbass frontlines. A leak from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense a couple of months ago said 125,00 of their soldiers had died and more than twice that many had sustained serious injuries. Today on the frontlines in the Donbass they are losing a battalion a day. This past week they replaced several brigades in the Donbass that had suffered 70% casualties.

The point is that the Ukrainians are depending on 40,000 NATO forces on the frontline. Other NATO soldiers are operating HIMARS and M777s systems because the Ukrainians do not have trained soldiers to spare. Over 6 weeks ago the Washington Post interviewed Ukrainian soldiers in a hospital in Nikolayev. One man said he had been a pig farmer 2 months before and had risen to the rank of tank commander. He had injured his back when his tank was driven into a ditch. Those sorts of things do not happen when you have time to train the young men you send to war.

General Zaluzhny, head of the Ukrainian Army, said recently he needs 300 tanks and 500 artillery pieces plus ammunition. The US shut down 80,000 manufacturing plants when they passed NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) in 1993 so we cannot send more than a trickle of rockets and artillery shells. The US sent the Ukraine 17 HIMARS systems of which 6 have been taken out by Russia. The Russians will have 1,000 advanced MLRS Tornado S systems on the frontlines when the Big Push against Kiev from Belarus begins.

Remember that a HIMARS can fire only 6 rockets at a time. The Russian Tornado S system can fire 12 rockets each in 12 seconds. That is a volley of 12,000 rockets vs 66 for Ukraine’s remaining HIMARS. But the Tornado S Rockets have a 50% greater range with twice the warhead payload. Additionally, both the HIMARS and the M777 require sophisticated maintenance after firing rockets and artillery shells. This is solved by shipping them to Poland and back for repairs – a mere 1,150 kilometer round-trip.

Putin said recently they are still training the 300,000 men who were called up though I have seen videos of Russian tank maneuvers in Belarus. Putin and his Defense Minister Shoigu are meeting with their Belarus counterparts today, December 19th, in Minsk.

Weather is till not good enough for tank warfare in Kiev so they have a reprieve until sometime around New Years. The Ukrainian military is currently debating whether Russia attacks Kiev in January or February. General Zaluzhny says the Russians are content for now to reduce the number of Ukrainian soldiers. The general said they have only 200,000 trained soldiers and most of these are briefly trained as compared to their pre-war counterparts. But they are, as I said, losing a battalion a day.

Russia has been attacking Ukrainian infrastructure with drones and missiles in waves of three. The first wave is suicide drones against radar and air defense missiles and critical infrastructure. The second wave consists of both real and dummy missiles. The Russians want the Ukrainians to fire their few remaining missiles against the dummies. Then the third wave of missiles comes in with refined targeting information. When the Ukrainians run out of air defense missiles, the Russians will go from 200 to 300 air sorties a day to 1,200 jet and helicopter sorties a day.

The Big Push will be against Kiev with 200,000 soldiers coming from Belarus. In addition to firing volleys of 12,000 Tornado S rockets, they will be firing 80,000 artillery shells a day so they can pin down the opposition and reduce the number of Ukrainian soldiers.

If I were Putin, I would concentrate some of my missiles against Ukraine’s few remaining Nazi brigades. Zelensky uses his Nazis to force lightly armed Ukrainian soldiers to assault fortified Russians positions defended by tanks, artillery and missiles. These are suicide missions. The Nazis are one reason why Ukrainian soldiers are losing a battalion a day in the Donbass. Their demise will be a great benefit to Ukrainian families with soldiers in the field.

The Russians must have a minor push against Sumy district which is due west of Kharkov. It is the center point for both the Ukrainian  electrical power distribution grid and for their network of rail lines. Capturing Sumy with a few mechanized brigades will speed up the collapse of the Ukrainian armies in the field from Kharkov to the Donbass.

The Donbass frontline should collapse by New Year’s Day. This will open up a big push towards Nikolayev and the port of Odessa in the south, to the center of the Ukraine and to Kharkov in the north. The greatest strategic significance will be the capture of the 40,000 NATO troops.

If Russia captures Sumy, the Ukrainians will not have enough diesel fuel to move 200,000 Ukrainian troops and key civilians plus the 40,000 NATO soldiers. Fuel and ammunition dumps are one of the primary targets on Day One of any offensive military operation.

Putin likes to take a gamble. He could go with a Big Push towards Kiev while capturing Sumy as soon as the Donbass collapses. Putin’s Tornado S MLRS could fire multiple volleys of 12,000 rockets. His artillery could fire 80,000 shells a day and in the first 3 days Russia could fire one thousand drones and rockets. At the end of the 72 hours, Putin could offer a ceasefire to all surrendering Ukrainian and NATO soldiers.

The Donbass frontline is collapsing so that might force Putin to take a gamble for an early invasion enabling him to capture those NATO men whose families missed them at Christmas and New Years.

If Putin captures these NATO men, he can ask for a lot.

I would like to suggest the following.

  1. Return all seized sanction assets to Russia, Venezuela, Syria and Iran. That is hundreds of billions of dollars and should include all the oil the US stole from Syria. Putin could pledge to use some of those assets to rebuild Ukrainian cities.
  2. Pull US troops out of Syria. President Erdogan of Turkiye wants a three way meeting with Putin and President Assad of Syria to discuss the withdrawal of US troops from Syria. Russia might point out to US troops in US Central Command that Iran has been given the Mach 12 Kinzhal missile that digs a hole 30 meters (98 feet) deep where its target was and that Iran was upgraded to the S-400 air defense system.
  3. Stop the blockade of food and medicine to Yemen. The US has helped to kill 300,000 civilians including children in Yemen.
  4. A pledge to give up any notion of nuclear first strike capabilities against Russia from the Ukraine, Poland or any other NATO country.                           I recently wrote about the economic ideas proposed Robert Heinlein in his first novel. Suffice to say he could eliminate taxes on couples making less than $100,000 a year and give them cash grants of $10,000 for their first child and $6,000 for the second. Robert Heinlein’s Solution To Our Economic Woes:

    Putin has cancelled his annual end of the year Ask Me Anything press conference. I think it is because he knows Russia will be involved in a Big Push towards Kiev from Belarus just after Christmas depending on the weather. The title refers to the 12 day of Christmas from Western Christmas on 12-25 to Orthodox Christmas on January 6th, the Epiphany. I think the Ukraine will collapse so quickly that Putin will offer a ceasefire just before Orthodox Christmas so soldiers in the field can surrender.

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    I recently wrote of Iran’s acquisition of the Russian Mach 12 Kinzhal missile which can dig a 30 meter (98 foot) hole at its target location. I believe they already received an upgrade to the S-400 air defense system. I outlined why I think the US Dollar will die long before the November 2024 elections. This will give Iran an opportunity to right some wrongs in their region. See this: Iran: Summer Offensive 2023?

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You can read more about Heinlein’s first novel here:,_the_Living

About horse237

I have decided to share two of the visions I had as a child. When I was eight, I had a vision of a future war that killed 99.5% of the world's population. When I was 16 and living in the projects, I had a vision of my future. I was to live in complete obscurity until it came time to stop WW III. When I was about ten, I had read a bio of Nikita Khrushchev which said he survived Stalin by playing the bumbling fool an old Russian peasant trick. I decided to do the same as I had already learned that we did not live in a democracy. The other vision I had when I was in third grade was of the Mind of God and how it interacted in the creation of the world we see. I believe you and I were born at this time precisely so we would have an opportunity to stop this war. As for my personal info, I grew up on military bases and in housing projects. My legs atrophied from starvation as a child. My second step-father died in prison. I used to have to rub my skin to simulate human contact. They did not feed me when I was a child. I do not fight in their wars as an adult.
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2 Responses to So What Happens When Russia Captures 40,000 NATO Soldiers?

  1. sisoegn says:

    Appreciate your theories on the conflict in Ukraine. Many analysts speculate a major US monetary collapse in January. That coupled with a defeat on the battle field with their Ukrainian proxy should make for an interesting 1Q 2023. Novo Khazaria with access to the black sea may never be realized, which is what many think was the primary objective of the neocons in the state dept. I fear what will happen when the neocons might have to accept defeat. They view this as their last opportunity for the forseeable future to get regime change and seize the riches of Russia. All 75 trillion of it.

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